New Senate Outlook

The Senate list is getting tighter, more efficient-the Top Four are getting further and further away from the Republican's hold, and the next four are getting tighter and tighter together. Anything after Number Nine will be a HUGE upset, but considering the volatility of this year, I wouldn't doubt a surprise could happen.

1. Pennsylvania-Santorum seems to have faded into oblivion, and Bob Casey, Jr. has started to outraise the incumbent. This will probably be the Democrat's favorite moment of the night, defeating the poster child of the Religious Right. (1)

2. Montana-Burns is starting to gain, but Tester appears solidly over 50 percent. Burns only hope would be in that Bush has a net positive in Montana, one of the few states he can claim that over. (2)

3. Ohio-The Republicans are bailing out of Ohio, and insiders state that DeWine is down by double digits at this point. (3)

4. Rhode Island-Whitehouse has opened up a solid single digit lead over Chafee, and the national Republicans aren't even mentioning him in ad buys at the moment. What with Shays and Chafee potentially going down, could this cycle be the death of the New England Republican? (4)

5. Missouri-Claire McCaskill has started airing the most powerful ad of the cycle, featuring Michael J. Fox in an advanced state of Parkinson's Disease. This could be a make-or-break moment among independents, so look to see public opinion. (5)

6. Tennessee-Ford has done absolutely everything right in this race: kept his negatives down, made his Republican look on weak on almost every issue, and basically run the most flawless campaign of the cycle. If this race was in Michigan or Washington, it would be a done deal at this point. The only thing helping Corker is that guaranteed 47 percent that a Republican comes with in Tennessee. (6)

7. Virginia-I said last time that this could be one of the races that picks up if the challenger starts shooting forward. Jim Webb is that candidate. Allen, like Corker in Tennessee, starts this race with a guaranteed 47 percent. If the momentum continues, Allen will lose, but he only has sixteen days to catch up-will there be enough time? (8)

8. New Jersey-If momentum continues, the Republicans will have given up possibly their best shot of the cycle. Had Liddy Dole adopted Tom Kean's campaign earlier, they could have made Kean the boy wonder of the cycle. Instead, Menendez defined Kean and this is slowly becoming out-of-reach for the Republicans. Now, I won't say this is in stone for the D's (particularly because Menendez often let's his mouth start yapping), but at the moment, the most vulnerable D-seat is looking less and less vulnerable. (7)

9. Maryland-Polls range from being in the MOE to being a solid lead for Cardin. Either way, it's looking more and more like the Democrats will come home once more in Maryland to help oust the Republicans. Let's just hope that when Babs Mikulski retires, the Democrats put up someone more exhilerating than Cardin. (9)

10. Michigan-Stabenow's seat is suddenly becoming more and more in play, and I think if this was September instead of October, the Republicans would start pouring money into this race, but at this point they are only able to go on defense in VA, MO, and TN. (11)

11. Nebraska-I put this one next because Ben Nelson holds this seat on some sort of borrowed time. The Democratic wave will make him win, but I suspect he'll start stockpiling for 2012, when he'll have to go up against presidential race. Republicans are probably kicking themselves for not forcing Johanns, Nelson, or Heinemann into this race. (12)

12. Washington-Cantwell has done it-the National Republicans are dropping out of this race, Cantwell has a solid lead, and the wave will carry Cantwell into a second term. I'd recommend, if she wants to hold this seat for years to come, she should start connecting more with the voters ala Patty Murray. (10)

13. Arizona-The wave is the only thing keeping this on the table. This may end up being the Democrats one that got away, as Pederson probably won't be able to top 45 percent at this point. (13)

14. Nevada-The biggest mover on this list, not just because Carter has officially topped 40 percent, but because Gibbons scandal can't help Ensign in this race. One has to wonder how many scandals Ensign can juggle without falling. (18)

15. Minnesota-Amy Klobuchar seems inevitable at this point, as Mark Kennedy seems to be running one of the worst campaigns I've seen. The real question here is whether or not Minnesota, after the very blue 2004 and what could be another very blue 2006, has simply returned to its liberal roots (thus damaging severely Norm's chances in 2008). (14)

16. Vermont-Sanders continues to slide into the easiest open seat race of the cycle. (15)

17. West Virginia-Byrd, considering the current climate, would have been the Republicans' smartest investment, but they didn't give to Raese early enough this cycle to do any good and Byrd will be orating on the Senate floor for (god-willing) another six years. (16)

18. Connecticut-Lieberman's going to win, so let's hope that Reid et al. are planning on handing him a key committee assignment to keep him from migrating to the other side. (17)

19. Florida-Harris continues to sound like a better-looking Alan Keyes. Even in Florida, Keyes couldn't win, and Harris won't either. (19)

20. Hawaii-I'm moving this up more because Akaka, who may be wounded amongst moderates from the primary, lost a major newspaper announcement. He won't lose, but he probably may stay below 60 percent. (20)